YC 创始人 Paul Graham最新预测：
在未来 20 年内, 真正会写作的人将大幅减少。这不仅仅是写作能力的消失, 更是思维能力的分化, AI 技术的出现将创造一个”会写作者”和”不会写作者”的分化世界
我们需要认识到写作不仅仅是一种技能, 而是思维和认知发展的重要工具
在 AI 时代, 主动选择保持写作能力变得更加重要
这种选择实际上是在决定要做一个”能思考的人”还是”依赖 AI 思考的人”
预测全文，
2024年10月，Paul Graham：写作与非写作
Paul Graham，美国程序员、风险投资家、博客作者和技术作家。他以Lisp方面的工作而知名，也是最早的Web应用Viaweb的创办者之一，后来被雅虎以美金5千万余元收购，成为Yahoo! Store。共同创办了当今世界最具影响力之一的创业加速器和种子资本公司Y Combinator
我通常不喜欢对技术做出预测，但对于这个预测，我感到颇为有把握：再过几十年，会写作的人恐怕不多了
如果你是一位作家，你会学到一件非常奇怪的事情：有多少人对写作感到困难。医生知道有多少人对自己的一颗痣感到担忧；擅长设置电脑的人知道有多少人不会使用电脑；而作家则知道有多少人需要写作方面的帮助
写作之所以让这么多人感到棘手，是因为它本质上就是一项困难的任务。要写好，必须清晰地思考，而清晰的思考本身就很难
然而，写作在许多工作中无处不在，而且越是体面的工作，往往越需要写作
这两种强大的对立力量——普遍的写作要求和写作本身难以降低的困难——制造了巨大的压力。这也是为什么一些知名教授往往会选择剽窃。在这些案例中，最让我震惊的是这些剽窃行为的琐碎性。他们窃取的通常是最普通的套话内容——那些写作水平稍微合格的人几乎不费吹灰之力就可以写出来的东西。这意味着他们甚至连稍微合格的写作能力都没有
直到最近，人们才没有应对这些对立力量所带来的压力的便捷方式。你可以像肯尼迪那样付钱让别人替你写，或者像马丁·路德·金那样剽窃，但如果既不能购买也无法窃取文字，你就得自己写。因此，几乎每一个被要求写作的人都必须学会如何写作
但现在情况不再是这样了。AI 打破了这个世界的界限。几乎所有的写作压力都已消失。在学校和工作中，你可以让 AI 替你完成写作
这种结果将会带来一个分裂的世界：有写作能力的人和没有写作能力的人。依然会有一些人会写作，因为有些人喜欢写作。但是在擅长写作的人和完全不会写作的人之间的中间层将会消失。未来将不再是好作家、普通作家和不会写作的人，而是只有好作家和不会写作的人
这真的有那么糟糕吗？当技术让某种技能变得过时时，这种技能消失不是很常见吗？如今的铁匠并不多见，但这似乎也不是个问题
是的，这很糟糕。原因是我之前提到的：写作即思考。实际上，有一种思考只能通过写作来实现。你很难比 Leslie Lamport 更好地阐明这一点：
如果你在不写的情况下思考，你只是以为自己在思考
因此，一个被分成写作者和非写作者的世界比听起来更危险。它将是一个“思考者”和“不思考者”的世界。我知道我想属于哪一半，我相信你也知道你想属于哪一半
这种情况并非史无前例。在工业化之前，大多数人的工作让他们变得强壮。现在，如果你想强壮，你需要锻炼。因此，依然有强壮的人，但只有那些选择变得强壮的人
写作也将如此。依然会有聪明的人，但只有那些选择变得聪明的人
英文，
Writes and Write-Nots
October 2024
I’m usually reluctant to make predictions about technology, but I feel fairly confident about this one: in a couple decades there won’t be many people who can write.
One of the strangest things you learn if you’re a writer is how many people have trouble writing. Doctors know how many people have a mole they’re worried about; people who are good at setting up computers know how many people aren’t; writers know how many people need help writing.
The reason so many people have trouble writing is that it’s fundamentally difficult. To write well you have to think clearly, and thinking clearly is hard.
And yet writing pervades many jobs, and the more prestigious the job, the more writing it tends to require.
These two powerful opposing forces, the pervasive expectation of writing and the irreducible difficulty of doing it, create enormous pressure. This is why eminent professors often turn out to have resorted to plagiarism. The most striking thing to me about these cases is the pettiness of the thefts. The stuff they steal is usually the most mundane boilerplate — the sort of thing that anyone who was even halfway decent at writing could turn out with no effort at all. Which means they’re not even halfway decent at writing.
Till recently there was no convenient escape valve for the pressure created by these opposing forces. You could pay someone to write for you, like JFK, or plagiarize, like MLK, but if you couldn’t buy or steal words, you had to write them yourself. And as a result nearly everyone who was expected to write had to learn how.
Not anymore. AI has blown this world open. Almost all pressure to write has dissipated. You can have AI do it for you, both in school and at work.
The result will be a world divided into writes and write-nots. There will still be some people who can write. Some of us like it. But the middle ground between those who are good at writing and those who can’t write at all will disappear. Instead of good writers, ok writers, and people who can’t write, there will just be good writers and people who can’t write.
Is that so bad? Isn’t it common for skills to disappear when technology makes them obsolete? There aren’t many blacksmiths left, and it doesn’t seem to be a problem.
Yes, it’s bad. The reason is something I mentioned earlier: writing is thinking. In fact there’s a kind of thinking that can only be done by writing. You can’t make this point better than Leslie Lamport did: If you’re thinking without writing, you only think you’re thinking. So a world divided into writes and write-nots is more dangerous than it sounds. It will be a world of thinks and think-nots. I know which half I want to be in, and I bet you do too.
This situation is not unprecedented. In preindustrial times most people’s jobs made them strong. Now if you want to be strong, you work out. So there are still strong people, but only those who choose to be.
It will be the same with writing. There will still be smart people, but only those who choose to be.
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